For each of the following situations, identify the hypothesis as well as the fact or observation under consideration. Then answer the following questions: 1) How likely is the fact in question supposing the hypothesis is true? Very likely? Somewhat likely? Not likely? 2) By comparison, how likely is the same fact supposing the hypothesis is NOT true? More likely? Less likely? Just as likely? 3) Based on your previous answers, how does the fact in question bear on the hypothesis? Is it evidence for the hypothesis? Against the hypothesis? Neither for nor against?
Grading criteria
You must identify the fact and the hypothesis correctly.
You should aim to give an accurate assessment of the relevant likelihoods, but I won’t take points off if I disagree with your assessment.
You must apply the evidence test correctly. This is not opinion-based. Your answer to question 3 must be consistent with whatever you said in response to questions 1 and 2.
1. Bobby keeps staring at Jane when she’s not watching but looks away as soon as she notices. She wonders if Bobby likes her.
2. (For this and the next question, you have to imagine that we’re having in-person classes). Your instructor carries a big pile of papers everywhere he goes. Every day, he is carrying a pile of papers. You can’t remember whether today is the day of your midterm exam and you see him walk into the lecture hall carrying a pile of papers. You wonder if the exam is today.
3. You’re walking down the street and recognize someone that sat near you in your Critical Thinking lecture earlier that day. You wonder if that person is a student at your school.
4. Jenny found another woman’s underwear in her boyfriend’s bedroom. She wonders if he’s cheating on her.
5. Rob walks into the locker room. He opens his locker, sees his shoes are missing. The next day, Sean shows up to school wearing shoes that look like his. He’d never worn those shoes before. Rob wonders if Sean stole his shoes.
6. Jane hates the sun but loves the feeling of raindrops on her head. One day, you see her walk into class carrying an umbrella. You wonder if it’s raining.